Published by Pratik Algo
Dollar Index Today: DXY Above 100 After Fed Hike | Sep 17
The Dollar Index holds above 100 after the Fed raises rates to 3.75%–4.00%. Explore the policy outlook, key DXY reference levels and today's events in UTC.
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By Pratik Algo | September 17, 2026 Research checked: approximately 09:20 UTC. All event times below are UTC.
The US Dollar Index is holding above 100 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday. The policy decision is now confirmed, shifting attention from whether the Fed would tighten to whether the dollar can sustain its post-announcement advance.
Investing.com's displayed DXY reference was approximately 100.18, down 0.14% against its displayed previous close, with a session range of 100.10–100.37, during this research window. The provider labels the quote “real-time derived”; this is a retrieved snapshot, not an executable price. The displayed quote clock was not independently verified in UTC. DXY market data.
Our focus is on three questions: can DXY defend 100, do incoming data reinforce the higher-rate outlook, and will policy developments outside the United States offset some of the dollar's advantage?
What the Federal Reserve decided
The Fed raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with a 12–0 vote. Its statement described resilient domestic spending and elevated inflation, while maintaining its commitment to returning inflation to 2%. The announcement was released on September 16 at 18:00 UTC. Federal Reserve statement.
This replaces the pre-decision expectations discussed in our September 16 Dollar Index preview.
For currencies, a rate increase is only part of the story. The dollar's response depends on how the expected US rate path changes relative to other economies and to what investors had already priced in. An announced hike therefore does not guarantee an uninterrupted dollar rally.
The projections point to further tightening
The Fed's September projections raised the median year-end policy-rate assessment compared with June:
| Fed median projection | September forecast | June forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate, end-2026 | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| Federal funds rate, end-2027 | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Real GDP growth, 2026 | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| PCE inflation, 2026 | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Unemployment rate, fourth-quarter 2026 | 4.1% | 4.3% |
The dot distribution places 12 of 18 participants at a 4.125% end-2026 midpoint, consistent with one additional quarter-point increase from the current range. These are conditional projections, not a commitment to a particular meeting or a guaranteed outcome. Inflation and GDP forecasts use fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter changes; they are not the latest monthly readings. Federal Reserve projections.
Pratik Algo interpretation: firmer growth, lower projected unemployment and persistent inflation give the dollar a supportive policy backdrop. That interpretation would weaken if subsequent data soften or investors conclude that this outlook is already fully reflected in prices.
Today's economic calendar
The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its September decision today. Its official calendar lists the current Bank Rate at 3.75%; the outcome had not been released in the sources checked for this article. Bank of England calendar.
| Time, UTC | Event | Forecast | Previous shown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | Bank of England Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 12:30 | US initial unemployment claims | 207,000 | 206,000 |
| 12:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 31.3 | 47.4 |
| 12:30 | US building permits, annualized | 1.40 million | 1.43 million |
| 12:30 | US housing starts, annualized | 1.32 million | 1.24 million |
| 14:00 | US pending home sales, month over month | −0.2% | −2.3% |
Forecasts are estimates, not released results; previous readings may be revised. Times were converted to UTC from the calendar's displayed London timezone, GMT+1. September 17 economic calendar.
For the dollar, the surprise relative to expectations matters more than whether a headline number is simply positive or negative. Resilient activity alongside limited layoffs could reinforce restrictive-policy expectations. A broad deterioration could weaken that argument.
Sterling's reaction to the Bank of England adds another source of volatility around the European-to-US session transition.
DXY price references to watch
| Reference | Basis |
|---|---|
| 100.37 | Upper edge of the session range displayed during research |
| 100.10 | Lower edge of that displayed range |
| 100.00 | Psychological round-number reference |
| 100.50 | Higher round-number checkpoint |
| 99.50 | Lower round-number checkpoint |
The observed range comes from Investing.com's DXY page. Round numbers are analytical reference points, not verified historical support or resistance. Session boundaries can change as new prices arrive.
Three conditional dollar scenarios
Continued strength: holding the lower boundary and then establishing sustained trading above the session high would support an extension toward the next higher checkpoint. A successful retest would be more persuasive than a brief news spike. Firmer US data or rising relative rate expectations would strengthen this interpretation.
Pullback: losing the session low and then failing to recover the 100 handle would weaken the immediate bullish case. Softer data or stronger counterpart currencies could contribute. The lower round-number checkpoint would become an area to reassess, not an automatic target.
Consolidation: repeated failures to leave the observed range would suggest the market is digesting the Fed decision while awaiting new information. Conflicting releases may produce reversals rather than a durable trend.
These are Pratik Algo's analytical scenarios, not confirmed outcomes or entry instructions.
What this means for forex and gold
A stronger dollar can add pressure to EUR/USD and GBP/USD, but each pair also responds to its domestic policy outlook. Dollar strength can also act as a headwind for dollar-denominated gold; real yields, risk sentiment and demand can offset that relationship.
DXY alone is therefore an incomplete trading signal for either currencies or precious metals.
The practical question today is whether price behavior confirms the Fed's tighter policy outlook after the next round of releases. Monitor the response across currencies and rates, rather than treating the initial post-Fed move as a settled direction.
Explore the Pratik Algo market research desk for related currency and precious-metals coverage.
*This article provides general market commentary and educational analysis, not personalized investment advice. Leveraged trading involves substantial risk. Prices, expectations and technical reference points can change rapidly. Cover: AI-generated editorial illustration.*
Risk notice: This market overview is educational, not financial advice or a trade signal. Market conditions can change quickly. Verify current prices and use independent risk management before making any decision.