Forex Today, Sep 21: Yen Weakens, AUD and NZD Advance

By Pratik Algo | September 21, 2026 Price pages retrieved: 12:21–12:23 UTC. All calendar times are UTC.

Forex today showed a mixed dollar performance ahead of the North American session. The dollar was higher against the yen and Canadian dollar, while the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Swiss franc strengthened against it. EUR/USD and GBP/USD were close to unchanged in the retrieved quotes.

That divergence makes each pair's domestic backdrop important. The common US policy story remains restrictive, but Japanese intervention concerns, European growth risks and Australian inflation pressures create different tests across the major currency pairs.

Major currency pairs: price snapshot and session ranges

Daily changes refer to the pairs as quoted. A rising USD/JPY or USD/CAD means dollar strength; rising EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD means strength in the counterpart currency.

These provider snapshots are indicative and were not updated simultaneously. The retrieval window is not an exact transaction timestamp, and feed latency was not independently verified. Broker quotes and session boundaries may differ.

The shared dollar driver: inflation and the Fed

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, citing elevated inflation alongside solid activity. Federal Reserve statement.

In prepared remarks reported on Monday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that strong demand could be adding to inflation and would require a policy response if it overheated. He did not provide a specific policy outlook. Reuters report on Goolsbee.

Our interpretation: incoming US data matter through their effect on expected interest rates relative to those abroad. A stronger reading may help the dollar if it lifts expected US returns, but the response also depends on what markets already anticipated.

EUR/USD: modest recovery faces a growth-inflation trade-off

EUR/USD was near its retrieved session high. A sustained move through 1.1490 would make the 1.1500 round number a nearby reference, while 1.1471 marks the observed session low.

Monday's Bundesbank report described elevated German inflation and lost economic momentum over the summer, according to Reuters. It still anticipated a recovery later in the year. Reuters on the Bundesbank report.

For the euro, persistent inflation can support expectations of restrictive policy, while weaker activity can limit confidence in growth. Today's scheduled Lagarde appearance is at a Pontes launch event; its subject does not guarantee new rate guidance.

GBP/USD: sterling approaches 1.3400 after the BoE hold

The Bank of England's September 17 announcement maintained Bank Rate at 3.75%, with six members supporting a hold and three preferring an increase to 4.00%. The Bank highlighted greater upside inflation risks. Bank of England decision.

The split keeps the balance between inflation and growth relevant for sterling. Around the current price, 1.3400–1.3401 combines a round number and the session high. Holding above that area would support the recovery case; a reversal toward 1.3369 would put the session low back in focus.

USD/JPY: rate expectations meet intervention risk

The Bank of Japan announced a 7–2 decision on September 18 to raise its overnight rate target to around 1.25%, effective September 24. Bank of Japan statement.

Reuters reported that Japanese rate checks had kept traders alert to possible intervention, while a Japanese holiday reduced participation. Rate checks are not confirmation that currency purchases have taken place. Reuters yen report.

USD/JPY was near the top of its 156.58–157.31 session range. Extending above 157.31 would strengthen the intraday advance, but official currency headlines could quickly interrupt it. 157.00 is a round-number reference, rather than evidence of an official intervention threshold.

AUD/USD: RBA inflation concerns remain relevant

In her September 18 testimony, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said some upside inflation risks appeared to be materialising even as growth slowed. She noted that the cash rate had increased by a cumulative 75 basis points during 2026. RBA testimony.

AUD/USD was close to its 0.7141 session high. Sustained strength beyond that point would extend the rebound; 0.7112 is the observed downside reference. Today's scheduled remarks from Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter may provide context, although a speech is not a policy decision.

NZD/USD: the kiwi gains despite slower card-spending growth

The economic calendar reported New Zealand credit-card spending growth of 3.5% year on year, compared with a previous 5.3%. This is one spending indicator, not a complete measure of household demand. September 21 calendar.

NZD/USD's positive daily reading shows that this release did not determine the whole currency move. The retrieved session boundaries were 0.5714 and 0.5739. The upper boundary is the immediate recovery test, with US policy expectations and wider market sentiment also relevant.

USD/CAD: Macklem's remarks are the local event to watch

USD/CAD was above the 1.4000 round number ahead of Governor Tiff Macklem's scheduled speech in Halifax. Bank of Canada event notice.

The session high at 1.4023 is an upside reference. A return below 1.4000 would weaken the immediate advance and bring 1.3983 back into view. Our focus is whether the speech changes expectations for Canadian policy relative to the Fed; its outcome was not available at the research cutoff.

USD/CHF: franc strength ahead of this week's SNB assessment

USD/CHF was near its 0.8208 session low. A sustained break below that point would extend franc strength, while a rebound toward 0.8239 would reverse more of the session's decline.

Beyond today, the Swiss National Bank's policy assessment is scheduled for September 24 at 07:30 UTC, followed by its news conference at 08:00 UTC, converted from Swiss local time. Guidance on inflation and the exchange rate may matter alongside the decision itself. SNB schedule.

Today's remaining economic calendar

The US release is listed in the Chicago Fed calendar. Speech times were checked against the daily economic calendar, with Lagarde's event context confirmed by the ECB schedule. Times have been converted to UTC. These events were still ahead at the research cutoff; schedules may change.

What would change the intraday outlook?

Broader dollar strength: firmer US activity accompanied by rising US rate expectations could pressure EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, while supporting the three USD-base pairs.

A broader dollar pullback: weaker US activity or lower expected US rates could support the opposite pattern, provided local developments do not outweigh the dollar effect.

Continued divergence: Japanese official headlines or surprises in European, Canadian or Australian remarks could keep individual pairs moving differently.

These are conditional scenarios, not assigned probabilities. Session extremes and round numbers are reference points, not guaranteed support, resistance or entry signals.

For broader context, read our Forex weekly forecast and today's US Dollar Index analysis.

*Market commentary is educational and does not constitute personalised investment advice. Prices and scenarios may change as new information arrives.*

*Cover: AI-generated editorial illustration.*