Forex Weekly Forecast: Major Pairs | Sep 21–25, 2026

By Pratik Algo | Prepared September 20, 2026 Week reviewed: September 14–18 | Week ahead: September 21–25, 2026 Research checked: 09:17 UTC, September 20. All calendar times are UTC.

The US dollar strengthened against all seven counterpart currencies covered below during the week ending September 18. The largest move among these quoted pairs was in USD/JPY, as investors weighed increases in US and Japanese interest rates against their expectations for future policy.

This forex weekly forecast focuses on how the major currency pairs could respond to global business surveys, Australian employment, Canadian retail sales and the Swiss National Bank’s policy assessment.

Major currency pairs: Friday reference prices

These are provider-reported historical references for September 18, not live Sunday quotes. Weekly changes compare September 18 with September 11; ranges cover September 14–18.

Changes refer to each pair as quoted. Rising USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF indicate dollar appreciation; declines in the other four pairs also indicate dollar appreciation. Broker prices and daily closing conventions can differ.

What shaped forex markets last week?

The Fed raised rates

The Federal Reserve increased its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, with a unanimous 12–0 vote. Policymakers described solid activity, resilient spending and inflation that remained elevated. Federal Reserve statement.

Pratik Algo interpretation: the decision reinforced the importance of relative interest-rate expectations. The next dollar move will depend on whether incoming data strengthen or weaken the case for further tightening compared with what investors already anticipate.

The BoJ increased rates, but the yen weakened

The Bank of Japan announced a 7–2 decision on September 18 to raise its overnight rate target to around 1.25%, effective September 24. Bank of Japan decision.

Reuters reported that dissent and guidance weighed on expectations for further increases. It also reported Japanese rate checks as the dollar pared some gains. Rate checks should not be treated as confirmation that currency intervention occurred. Reuters forex report.

The reaction illustrates why an announced rate increase can still accompany currency weakness: the expected path after the decision matters too.

The BoE held, with a split vote

The Bank of England’s September 17 announcement kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, following a 6–3 vote. Three members preferred a rise to 4.00%, and the Bank highlighted increased upside inflation risks. Bank of England decision.

For sterling, the next question is whether activity and inflation indicators support the case for additional restraint without signalling a substantial deterioration in growth.

Pair-by-pair outlook

The following are Pratik Algo’s conditional scenarios. Price references come from the historical sources linked in the table; they are not guaranteed support, resistance or targets.

EUR/USD: relative business activity comes into focus

Wednesday’s European and US flash PMIs will offer a comparison of growth and price pressures. Stronger European results could help the euro, while US outperformance could preserve dollar support.

A sustained recovery above 1.1498, Thursday’s high, would improve the near-term picture and bring 1.1557 into focus. The weekly low at 1.1453 remains a downside reference.

GBP/USD: the BoE split keeps the data important

UK flash PMIs will help assess whether activity supports the Bank’s inflation concerns. Firm survey results could assist sterling, although the response will also depend on US data.

Recovering 1.3409, Thursday’s high, would support a rebound towards 1.3497. A loss of 1.3334, the weekly low, would weaken that recovery scenario.

USD/JPY: policy expectations and official comments matter

The rate differential remains relevant, but news about Japanese authorities’ currency stance could produce abrupt moves. Japan’s holiday schedule also deserves attention when assessing short-term price swings.

158.08, the weekly high, is the main upside reference. 155.87, Friday’s low, offers an initial area to monitor if the advance unwinds.

AUD/USD: Australian employment is the domestic test

Australia’s labour-force release is scheduled for September 24. Employment, unemployment and participation should be assessed together when judging its implications for Reserve Bank policy. ABS release schedule.

A recovery through 0.7141 would bring the weekly high of 0.7175 into view. 0.7075 is the weekly downside reference. The outcome also depends on US rates and wider risk sentiment.

NZD/USD: domestic spending and global risk appetite

Monday’s credit-card spending release provides a domestic demand indicator. US data and regional risk sentiment could still dominate the kiwi’s broader direction.

Holding above 0.5703, the weekly low, would preserve the possibility of stabilisation. A recovery through 0.5772, Wednesday’s high, would improve the rebound picture. A weak reading alone would not determine the week’s outcome.

USD/CAD: retail sales and US claims arrive together

Canadian retail sales and US jobless claims are scheduled for the same time on Thursday, creating potential reactions on both sides of the pair. Oil also matters for Canada’s export outlook, although its currency relationship is not automatic.

The 1.4000–1.4015 area combines a round number and the weekly high. A pullback through 1.3914, Wednesday’s low, would weaken the recent advance.

USD/CHF: the SNB assessment is the key local event

The SNB’s September 24 policy assessment is scheduled for 07:30 UTC, followed by its news conference at 08:00 UTC. Inflation projections and exchange-rate commentary could matter alongside the rate decision. SNB schedule.

0.8267 is the weekly high, while 0.8216, Friday’s low, is an initial downside reference. The response could differ from other dollar pairs if Swiss policy guidance surprises.

Forex economic calendar: September 21–25

These are scheduled events, not released results.

The schedule was checked against the weekly economic calendar, ABS release page, SNB schedule and US Census calendar. Times have been converted to UTC and may change.

Japan has bank holidays on September 21–23, and China has a bank holiday on September 25. Participation in affected markets may be lighter. Central-bank speeches also run through the week. Weekly calendar.

Looking beyond this week: the BEA schedules the third estimate of second-quarter US GDP and August Personal Income and Outlays, including PCE inflation, for September 30 at 12:30 UTC. BEA release schedule.

What would change the broader outlook?

Continued dollar strength: stronger US activity and persistent price pressure could support expectations of further tightening, particularly if counterpart economies disappoint.

A dollar pullback: softer US results combined with firmer overseas data could encourage a partial reversal of last week’s moves.

Different directions across pairs: an SNB surprise, Australian labour-market shock or yen-related official announcement could produce a strong local reaction even without a broad change in dollar demand.

One practical point is shared USD exposure. Long EUR/USD, long GBP/USD and short USD/JPY can all benefit from dollar weakness, so holding several pairs does not necessarily diversify the underlying currency view.

For more detail on the US policy backdrop, read our Dollar Index weekly forecast. Follow subsequent releases through the Pratik Algo market research desk.

*Market commentary is educational and does not constitute personalised investment advice. Scenarios and reference levels can change as new information arrives.*

*Cover: AI-generated editorial illustration.*