Natural Gas Weekly Forecast: Henry Hub | Sep 21–25, 2026

By Pratik Algo | Prepared September 20, 2026 Week reviewed: September 14–18 | Week ahead: September 21–25, 2026 Research checked: 09:45 UTC, September 20. All event times are UTC.

US natural gas finished last week higher, with the October Henry Hub contract gaining approximately 2.86%. The advance left prices below the $3.00 round number as traders assessed cooling demand, LNG exports and the storage position ahead of winter. Henry Hub historical prices.

This natural gas weekly forecast focuses on Thursday’s US storage report, changing weather expectations and international LNG developments. Henry Hub, European gas and Asian LNG are connected markets, but their local supply conditions can produce very different price reactions.

Henry Hub prices: Friday reference snapshot

All prices below are in US dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu). They are provider-reported futures settlement references for September 18, not live Sunday quotes.

Source: Natural gas contract table.

October’s September 14–18 range was $2.846–$2.978. Its weekly gain compares Friday’s $2.912 reference with $2.831 on September 11. Historical series.

The November and December prices represent different delivery months. Their premiums over October should not be interpreted as guaranteed gains or as a forecast of next week’s cash price. Broker CFDs may also use different contract and rollover conventions.

What supported natural gas last week?

Warm weather and LNG demand helped, while production limited the move

The Wall Street Journal’s Friday report linked the weekly advance to continued summer warmth, power-sector gas consumption and higher LNG feedgas flows. It also highlighted strong US production as a counterweight. Friday market report.

Pratik Algo interpretation: the balance between power demand, exports and available supply matters more than any single bullish headline. Feedgas is the natural gas delivered to liquefaction plants; changes in terminal operations can therefore affect domestic demand.

Storage increased, with different national and regional signals

The EIA release published September 17, covering the week ending September 11, showed:

South Central stocks fell by 5 Bcf, even as the national total increased. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

The national surplus over the five-year average offers a supply cushion. The year-over-year deficit and regional withdrawals show why that cushion should be monitored rather than assumed to be comfortable everywhere. These storage comparisons use different benchmarks and are both valid.

Weather outlook: where the warmth occurs matters

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s September 19 outlook favoured above-normal temperatures across much of the central and western contiguous US for September 25–29. The strongest warm probabilities exceeded 70% in southern Texas, while parts of the Mid-Atlantic favoured below-normal temperatures. NOAA outlook discussion.

Our assessment: warmth in areas still using air conditioning can support gas-fired power demand. However, the effect depends on actual temperatures, population exposure and competing electricity supply. Mild autumn weather elsewhere can reduce both cooling and heating requirements.

The cited forecast period starts at the end of the coming trading week and extends beyond it. It is a probability outlook, not a guarantee of daily temperatures or a forecast for every day of September 21–25.

LNG and energy news: three developments to monitor

Europe and Asia continue competing for available cargoes

Reuters analysis published September 17 described high spot LNG costs discouraging some Asian purchases while allowing Europe to attract more cargoes. Reuters LNG analysis.

For the coming week, sustained cargo arrivals and terminal availability will help distinguish physical supply improvement from a temporary change in sentiment.

Some LNG movement through Hormuz has resumed

Reuters reported on September 18 that three LNG vessels had reappeared outside the Strait of Hormuz, including ships carrying Qatari and UAE cargoes. It noted that shipping data could be revised because some vessels switch off tracking signals. Reuters shipping report.

Those observations show individual cargo movements; they do not establish that normal export volumes have returned.

US–China LNG discussions could affect sentiment

Reuters reported talks over reducing or removing China’s tariff on US LNG ahead of a planned September 24 leaders’ meeting. The proposals were not final. Reuters trade report.

Any announcement should be assessed for its implementation date and likely shipment effects. A trade agreement or cargo redirection does not instantly expand US liquefaction capacity.

Why higher overseas gas prices do not guarantee a Henry Hub rally

LNG links regional markets through liquefaction, shipping and regasification infrastructure. These steps create capacity constraints and costs between US pipeline gas and gas delivered overseas. EIA LNG explainer.

Pratik Algo interpretation: stronger overseas demand supports Henry Hub most directly when it increases actual US feedgas consumption. If terminals are already operating at their available limits, higher overseas prices may mainly change cargo destinations and margins.

US supply remains relevant too. In its September 9 forecast, completed September 3, the EIA projected dry gas production averaging 111.7 Bcf/day in 2026 and working-gas stocks reaching 3,969 Bcf on October 31. These are dated forecasts, not current daily production readings or guaranteed outcomes. EIA September outlook.

Henry Hub technical references

The following levels apply to the October 2026 contract. They are conditional reference areas identified by Pratik Algo, not guaranteed support, resistance or targets.

Historical levels come from the dated price series; $3.000 is an analytical round number.

A brief move through a level is weaker evidence than sustained trading beyond it. Storage surprises, weather revisions or changes in terminal operations can quickly invalidate the setup. Match these references to your actual contract before using them.

Natural gas calendar: September 21–25

The EIA confirms September 24 as the next storage release. Its standard 10:30 US Eastern publication time converts to 14:30 UTC. Other event times were converted from the weekly economic calendar. Schedules can change. EIA storage schedule.

A smaller injection can support prices if it signals a tighter balance than expected; a larger injection can weigh on prices if it indicates more available supply. The comparison with consensus, seasonal norms and regional changes matters more than the positive or negative sign alone.

Three scenarios for the coming week

Bullish scenario: cooling demand lasts longer than expected, US LNG feedgas remains firm and storage replenishment disappoints expectations. Sustained recovery beyond the weekly high would strengthen this case.

Bearish scenario: weather-driven demand fades, production stays strong or LNG terminal intake falls. A larger-than-expected injection could add pressure and test the lower price references.

Mixed scenario: international LNG prices remain elevated while Henry Hub stays within its recent range because US production and storage absorb domestic demand.

Pratik Algo’s focus: watch Thursday’s storage surprise together with forecast revisions and actual export-terminal demand. Overseas LNG stress provides context; the US gas balance determines how much of that pressure reaches Henry Hub.

Follow further energy coverage through the Pratik Algo market research desk.

*Market commentary is educational and does not constitute personalised investment advice. Natural gas futures and CFDs can be volatile, and scenarios may change as new information arrives.*

*Cover: AI-generated editorial illustration; it does not depict a specific terminal or reported event.*