Forex Weekly Outlook: Dollar, RBA and US Jobs in Focus

Review: September 21–25, 2026 | Outlook: September 28–October 2, 2026

The forex weekly outlook enters a crowded week with the US dollar stronger against all seven major counterpart currencies in this review. Friday's yen rebound interrupted that momentum, but it did not erase the dollar's weekly advance. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD finished below their previous Friday reference closes, while USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF ended higher.

The next test is whether US inflation and employment data reinforce that advantage. Australia's rate decision creates a separate catalyst for AUD/USD, while European inflation, Canadian GDP and Japanese policy headlines could produce sharply different outcomes across pairs.

Prices below are September 25 historical reference closes, not live Saturday quotes. The outlook and technical interpretations are conditional analysis.

Major currency pairs: the weekly scorecard

Calculations use Investing.com's dated historical rows: September 25 close divided by September 18 close, minus one. Ranges are the highest high and lowest low recorded during September 21–25. Returns describe the quoted pair; a rise in USD/CAD, for example, means the Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar. Decentralized forex feeds and session cutoffs can produce different closing values.

Why the dollar held its weekly advantage

The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise its target range to 3.75%–4.00% remained an important backdrop. That decision occurred in the previous week; the latest week's question was whether incoming evidence supported further policy restraint.

September's flash US composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0, according to S&P Global, indicating faster surveyed business activity. Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended September 19, against a revised 198,000 previously. Together, those releases offered evidence of economic resilience.

The household picture was less comfortable. Final University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 from 51.7 in August. Strong activity surveys and weak confidence can coexist when households worry about prices and purchasing power.

Our interpretation is that this mix keeps both inflation and growth risks relevant. Stronger US data can support the dollar through interest-rate expectations, but another advance needs fresh confirmation rather than an assumption that every release will beat forecasts.

EUR/USD: recovery needs more than Friday's bounce

EUR/USD finished near 1.1391, down approximately 0.81% for the week. The pair remained well below the week's 1.1496 high, suggesting that Friday's stabilization had not repaired the broader weekly decline.

The first downside reference is 1.1359, the weekly low. Holding that area would preserve room for consolidation. A sustained move below it would weaken the near-term structure; a brief intraday break followed by recovery would be less decisive.

On the upside, 1.1412, Friday's high, is the first checkpoint, followed by 1.1456, Wednesday's high. Reclaiming those areas would provide stronger evidence of recovery.

Euro-area flash inflation on October 2 adds a local catalyst before US payrolls. A hotter European reading could support tighter ECB expectations, but the currency response would still depend on how US yields move later that day.

GBP/USD: policy support meets dollar pressure

Sterling closed around 1.3253, approximately 1.06% lower on the week. Its Friday recovery left it close to the lower end of the weekly range.

The Bank of England's September decision kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, with a 6–3 vote and three members favoring an increase to 4%. That prior-week decision illustrates the policy tension: inflation risks can support expectations of higher rates even when growth concerns remain.

For the coming week, 1.3203–1.3207 is the nearby downside zone drawn from Thursday and Friday lows. 1.3266 is the first recovery hurdle, with 1.3354 a more demanding checkpoint.

UK final GDP is scheduled for September 30. A better domestic reading could help sterling, but a durable GBP/USD rebound would be more convincing if accompanied by a narrowing US interest-rate advantage.

USD/JPY: Friday changed the short-term risk balance

USD/JPY ended near 157.28, only 0.25% higher for the week after falling roughly 1% on Friday. The retreat from the week's 159.05 high distinguished the yen from several other major currencies.

Reuters linked Friday's yen strength to renewed Japanese and US concern about yen weakness and intervention risk. Official warnings increase uncertainty; they do not establish that authorities actually intervened.

The first downside area is 156.94–156.57, combining Friday's low and the weekly low. On the upside, 158.41 and 158.97–159.05 are reference points from the week's trading.

This pair deserves particular attention to unscheduled headlines. A strong US release could lift yields while policy comments simultaneously support the yen. That combination can generate a rapid reversal rather than a clean response to the economic number alone.

AUD/USD: the RBA decision comes before CPI

AUD/USD was the weakest of the four USD-quoted pairs in this comparison, falling 1.33% to 0.7024. It ended close to the weekly low despite a modest Friday recovery.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted inflation risks during the week while avoiding a commitment to the next decision. The policy announcement is scheduled for September 29 at 04:30 UTC, followed by the press conference at 05:30 UTC. Australian CPI follows the next day.

That sequence matters. The market will first interpret the decision and guidance, then reassess them against the inflation release. Even a rate increase need not lift AUD/USD if it was already anticipated or the guidance disappoints.

0.7003 is the first downside reference, near the psychological 0.7000 level. 0.7044–0.7048 is the initial recovery zone, while 0.7121–0.7142 marks a substantially stronger recovery test.

NZD/USD: weakness persists near the weekly floor

NZD/USD closed at 0.5658, down approximately 1.14% for the week, and did not share the Friday recovery recorded by the euro, pound and Australian dollar.

The immediate reference is 0.5650, reached on both Thursday and Friday. Repeated contact makes it useful to monitor, but does not guarantee support. A sustained break would indicate that buyers had failed to defend the observed weekly floor.

For recovery, 0.5679–0.5688 is the first zone, followed by 0.5733–0.5750. A rebound that stalls below the nearer zone would offer limited evidence of a broader reversal.

New Zealand business confidence and China's PMI releases provide regional context. Our analysis is that stronger regional activity could help the kiwi, but US inflation and employment surprises remain capable of dominating the exchange rate.

USD/CAD: Canadian growth must challenge the trend

USD/CAD rose approximately 1.10% to 1.4144, finishing close to its 1.4156 weekly high. The historical series recorded gains on every session of the review week.

Reuters reported earlier in the week that wider US–Canadian yield spreads were pressuring the Canadian dollar. That helps explain why oil alone is an incomplete guide to this pair.

The nearby upside reference is 1.4156. A sustained move through it would extend the observed weekly structure. 1.4088–1.4057 is the first broader pullback zone, while 1.3980–1.3990 marks the lower end of the week's range and its opening area.

Canada's monthly GDP release on September 29 is the principal scheduled domestic checkpoint. Stronger growth could improve Canadian rate expectations, but the market will also compare that evidence with the subsequent US releases.

USD/CHF: the SNB leaves the rate contrast intact

USD/CHF ended at 0.8285, up approximately 0.77% for the week. The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0% on September 24 and reiterated its willingness to act in the foreign-exchange market when necessary.

The difference between Swiss and US policy rates remains relevant, although exchange rates respond to expected future policy as well as today's settings. Safe-haven demand can also support the franc during periods of market stress.

0.8298–0.8300 is the immediate upside zone. 0.8270 is the first downside checkpoint, followed by 0.8228–0.8201.

Holding near the weekly high would preserve the constructive USD/CHF structure. A retreat through the first support area would suggest consolidation; a deeper move into the lower zone would provide more substantial evidence that the weekly advance was losing momentum.

Economic calendar: September 28–October 2

All times are UTC. Add 5 hours 30 minutes for IST. These are scheduled events, not published results; calendars can change.

Calendar sources: RBA, BEA, BLS and Forex Factory.

The key scheduling detail is that PCE is on Wednesday, September 30, while payrolls are on Friday, October 2. The US GDP release concerns the second quarter and should not be confused with a new third-quarter estimate. ADP covers private employment and is not a substitute for the official payroll report.

Three scenarios for the week ahead

Dollar strength continues: Firmer-than-expected underlying PCE inflation, resilient employment and higher US yields would support the existing dollar trend. Confirmation would include EUR/USD and GBP/USD struggling at recovery levels and USD/CAD holding near its weekly high.

The dollar gives back gains: Softer inflation or weaker labor data could reduce expectations of further tightening. A broad response across several pairs would be more persuasive than an isolated rally in one currency.

Local policy produces a split market: An RBA surprise, yen-related policy headlines or unexpectedly strong European inflation could move individual currencies even without a major change in the broad dollar outlook.

September 30 also ends the month and quarter. Portfolio rebalancing can influence prices around major trading fixes, making a short-lived move harder to interpret. Energy and geopolitical headlines remain an additional source of volatility.

Across these scenarios, compare actual releases with the consensus available immediately before publication, including revisions and underlying details. The first price spike alone is weak evidence of a sustained change in direction.

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For additional context, read our September 25 forex review or browse Pratik Algo Market Research.

*This article provides educational market commentary, not personalized investment advice. The price levels are historical references, and the scenarios are conditional rather than guaranteed forecasts.*