Natural Gas Weekly Outlook: Henry Hub, Storage and LNG

Review: September 21–25, 2026 | Outlook: September 28–October 2, 2026

The natural gas weekly outlook opens with a strong weekly advance in the expiring October Henry Hub contract, despite a Friday pullback. Pipeline disruption, shifting weather expectations and the approaching delivery-month change made the week unusually sensitive to short-term developments.

The next question is whether November futures can sustain buying interest as October trading ends. US inventories offer a national cushion, while regional storage differences and overseas LNG uncertainty complicate the picture.

This report uses September 25 futures settlements and dated releases. These are not live Saturday quotes. Price scenarios are analysis, not forecasts of guaranteed outcomes.

Henry Hub: what happened last week?

Prices below are in US dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

Monday’s decline gave way to gains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday then delivered a 9.06% jump, before Friday surrendered part of that advance. The final session therefore tells only part of the weekly story.

The weekly percentage compares October with October: $3.196 against $2.912. It is not a comparison between different delivery months or the return on a rolled trading position. Historical prices come from Investing.com’s NGV6 series, cross-checked against the dated futures settlement table.

Why the October expiry matters

CME’s termination rule places the October contract’s last trading day on Monday, September 28. November consequently becomes the more relevant reference for the week ahead.

November Henry Hub settled at $3.225 on September 25, down 4.30% from Thursday’s $3.370. Friday’s November range was $3.158–$3.300.

Some quote pages also display later electronic-session trades. Those can differ from settlement without either observation being erroneous.

Contract selection matters when reading charts. An October price level should not automatically become a November trading level. Broker CFDs and continuous charts can also incorporate rollover adjustments. The levels later in this article refer specifically to November 2026 futures, not an unspecified natural-gas ticker.

Pipeline disruption: watch the repair, not just the headline

Reuters reported that a Mountaineer Xpress mechanical problem affected roughly 1.4–1.8 billion cubic feet per day of flows. A force majeure notice followed on September 24.

On Friday, Columbia Gas Transmission said crews were working on repairs, with another customer update expected on Sunday, September 27. That was an expected update, not confirmation that operations had already normalized.

The market implication is conditional: restored transportation could remove some disruption support; a prolonged restriction could keep regional balances unsettled. Lost pipeline capacity does not automatically equal an identical reduction in nationwide production.

EIA storage: above the seasonal average, below last year

The EIA report released September 24 showed a 53 Bcf injection for the week ending September 18.

Bcf means billion cubic feet.

The national surplus is a buffer, but it is smaller than last year’s stock position. Regional detail also matters: the South Central region was below its seasonal average even while the national total remained above it.

This report does not classify the injection as a consensus beat or miss because the available expectation references were inconsistent. Thursday’s next release should be assessed against contemporaneous expectations, the seasonal comparison and regional changes—not the headline injection alone.

The winter baseline still leaves room for surprises

In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA projected end-October inventories of 3,969 Bcf, approximately 5% above the five-year average.

That is an earlier monthly forecast, released September 9 using a forecast completed September 3. It is not an updated inventory reading or a guarantee of the eventual winter starting point.

The distinction matters after an infrastructure disruption. A baseline can remain comfortable while individual weeks become tighter. Conversely, a temporary price spike does not establish a sustained shortage.

The useful test is whether new information changes the expected balance over several weeks. Persistent revisions to demand, production or exports carry more weight for the winter outlook than a single volatile session.

Weather: autumn warmth has two different effects

NOAA’s September 25 outlook favored above-normal temperatures across much of the eastern United States for October 1–5, with especially strong probabilities in parts of the Southeast. Much of the northern and central Plains favored near-normal temperatures.

For gas demand, warmer weather is not automatically bullish. In warmer southern markets, lingering heat can support air-conditioning and gas-fired electricity generation. Farther north, warmth can postpone heating demand.

The important variable is the resulting population-weighted demand, not simply the amount of red shading on a temperature map.

NOAA’s October 3–9 outlook also retained warmer-than-normal probabilities in parts of the East and West. That period extends beyond this article’s trading-week horizon. Updated forecasts can change quickly, so these maps should be treated as probabilities rather than a fixed consumption schedule.

US production and LNG: opposing influences on the balance

Reuters, citing LSEG estimates, put September average Lower 48 production at 112.5 Bcf/d, compared with 112.3 Bcf/d in August. Estimated LNG feedgas averaged 17.9 Bcf/d, up from 17.2 Bcf/d.

The same report identified annual maintenance at Cove Point, beginning around September 19. Individual-terminal maintenance can soften feedgas even when the wider export trend remains strong.

For the coming week, the important comparison is how quickly available supply and export demand change relative to each other. A production recovery combined with slower feedgas would loosen the domestic balance. Sustained export demand alongside disrupted supply would work in the opposite direction.

High overseas prices can encourage demand for US cargoes, but domestic prices also depend on liquefaction capacity, terminal availability and pipeline access. Global scarcity does not pass through to Henry Hub without physical constraints.

Europe and Qatar keep global LNG risk in focus

Reuters reported on September 25 that the European Commission’s energy chief urged governments to consider measures that would reduce gas demand. Citing Gas Infrastructure Europe, the report put EU storage at about 70% full, roughly 12 percentage points below a year earlier.

Europe had not yet experienced supply shortages, according to that report, but filling storage ahead of winter was becoming more difficult as prices rose.

Separately, QatarEnergy said the first North Field East expansion train was still expected in the first half of 2027, while subsequent trains faced uncertainty linked to the Hormuz crisis and equipment deliveries.

That concerns future capacity. It should not be presented as additional supply arriving next week.

For Henry Hub, these developments strengthen the case for watching LNG flows alongside US fundamentals. European storage percentages and American inventory volumes measure different systems; neither should be used as a direct substitute for the other.

November Henry Hub: price levels to monitor

These are observed reference points and conditional interpretations, not model-generated targets.

The observations above refer to the November contract.

A sustained move above $3.300 would improve the immediate picture, especially if followed by acceptance above $3.370. A brief spike would offer less evidence than a move that holds through subsequent trading.

Failure to hold $3.158 would weaken the initial recovery case. There is no verified lower technical target in this report; round numbers should not be mistaken for demonstrated support.

These levels are anchored to specific observations. They are not a full November weekly range, and no unverified RSI, moving average or volume-based signal has been added.

The week ahead: September 28–October 2

All times are UTC. Add 5 hours 30 minutes for India Standard Time.

Dates and times were checked against the exchange rule, agency schedules and the economic calendar.

Weather revisions, pipeline notices and LNG-terminal developments have no single fixed release time.

Macroeconomic surprises can influence positioning across commodities, but they should be weighed alongside gas-specific supply and demand. Thursday’s manufacturing release and gas report are only 30 minutes apart, making the sequence of price reactions relevant.

Three conditional scenarios

A stronger recovery: November holds Friday’s low, moves above $3.300 and then sustains trade above $3.370. Confirmation would be more convincing if accompanied by firmer weather-driven demand or evidence of a tighter physical balance.

A consolidation phase: Prices remain between Friday’s $3.158 and $3.300 boundaries while traders await clearer operational and storage information. That would be a temporary working range, not a prediction that prices must remain inside it.

Renewed weakness: November loses $3.158 as supply availability improves or demand expectations fade. A recovery back inside the range would weaken that bearish interpretation.

These scenarios require fresh confirmation after trading resumes. Weekend headlines can cause opening gaps, and a quoted level does not ensure execution at that price.

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For related weekly coverage, visit Pratik Algo Market Research.

*Educational market commentary only. Futures and leveraged products carry substantial risk; the scenarios above are not personalized investment advice.*