Forex Weekly Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY

Week ahead: September 14–18, 2026

*Information checked: September 12, 2026, at 12:12 UTC.*

*All event times below are UTC. Use your economic calendar’s time-zone setting to display them locally. Exchange rates are dated Friday closing references, not live weekend prices.*

Major currency pairs enter the new week with different underlying trends. The dollar gained against several currencies last week, but the Japanese yen strengthened against it. That divergence makes relative central-bank policy more useful than assuming every pair will follow the same dollar trade.

This forex weekly outlook covers EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, with a focus on the news and price structure that could shape the next sustained move.

Major currency pairs: latest prices and weekly performance

The following figures use Investing.com’s dated daily historical series. Weekly changes are calculated from September 4 to September 11 closing references.

A falling USD/JPY means yen strength against the dollar. Rising USD/CAD and USD/CHF mean dollar strength against the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc.

Broker feeds, closing conventions and bid/ask spreads can produce slightly different quotes. The figures above provide a consistent comparison rather than an executable price.

US inflation and the Fed: the common driver

August US headline CPI increased 0.4% month on month, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%. Monthly core CPI accelerated to 0.3% from 0.2%, although annual core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.5%. Core CPI excludes food and energy. BLS CPI report.

Our interpretation is that slower annual core inflation offers some relief, but firmer monthly inflation keeps restrictive policy in focus. Currency markets must assess both the direction of inflation and how central banks are likely to respond.

The Fed’s latest decision maintained its target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with three members preferring a quarter-point increase. The upcoming decision should therefore not be approached as an automatic rate-cut event. Federal Reserve July statement.

The September meeting includes economic projections. Traders should examine the decision, projected policy path and press-conference guidance together. FOMC meeting calendar.

In our scenario analysis, a more restrictive outcome accompanied by higher US yields would generally support the dollar. A less restrictive message could weaken it. However, the impact depends on what was already priced in and whether the other central bank in each pair delivers a larger surprise.

EUR/USD forecast: ECB tightening meets the Fed decision

The ECB raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on September 10. The announced deposit rate of 2.50%, main refinancing rate of 2.65% and marginal lending rate of 2.90% take effect on September 16. The ECB cited inflation pressure linked to the Middle East conflict. ECB policy decision.

Despite that announcement, EUR/USD finished the week slightly lower, as shown in the price table.

Our assessment: higher euro-area rates can support the euro, but the benefit can be offset by stronger US rate expectations or energy-related concerns about European growth.

For the week ahead, compare US and euro-area yield movements. A euro recovery would be more convincing if the relative rate outlook improves and price holds gains after a pullback. An ECB hike alone does not guarantee a higher EUR/USD.

GBP/USD forecast: UK inflation, wages and the BoE

UK monthly GDP grew 0.4% in July, following 0.3% in June. Output also increased 0.4% over the three months to July. These are different comparisons, even though the latest growth figures match numerically. ONS GDP report.

The Bank of England last maintained Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three of its nine policymakers preferring an increase to 4%. BoE July decision.

Next week’s labour-market and inflation releases arrive before the BoE decision. Our interpretation is that firm wage growth or persistent underlying inflation could strengthen expectations for restrictive UK policy. Softer readings could have the opposite effect.

Sterling still needs support relative to the dollar. Strong UK data can coexist with a falling GBP/USD if US expectations move more sharply.

USD/JPY forecast: two central banks, two opportunities for repricing

USD/JPY recorded the largest weekly decline among the seven pairs in our table. That move indicates significant yen outperformance against the dollar.

A September 9 Reuters poll pointed to expectations for a BoJ rate increase to 1.25% at the September meeting. This is a forecast, not an announced decision. Reuters BoJ poll.

Our assessment is that expectations for Japanese tightening help explain why the yen can strengthen even when US policy remains restrictive.

The sequence matters: the Fed announces first, followed by the BoJ’s September 17–18 meeting. A move after the Fed can be challenged by Japan’s subsequent decision.

If Japanese policy expectations strengthen relative to US expectations, USD/JPY could face renewed pressure. A less restrictive BoJ message than expected could instead trigger a rebound. Avoid assuming that an anticipated hike must produce another immediate yen rally.

AUD/USD forecast: domestic inflation versus global sentiment

The RBA maintained its cash-rate target at 4.35% in August, with inflation still above its target. RBA August decision.

For AUD/USD, the useful comparison is between Australian and US policy expectations, alongside changes in commodity demand and investor appetite for risk.

Our bullish scenario requires more than a brief dollar dip: firmer global sentiment and sustained buying after a pullback would offer stronger evidence. A restrictive Fed message combined with weaker growth expectations would be a less supportive combination.

Two calendar distinctions matter: the next RBA rate update is September 29, and the ABS lists August labour-force data for September 24. Neither belongs in the September 14–18 event list. RBA rate calendar, ABS labour-force schedule.

NZD/USD forecast: watch the growth outlook

NZD/USD fell more than AUD/USD last week, showing that the two currencies should not be treated as interchangeable.

New Zealand’s June-quarter GDP release is due during the outlook week. The official schedule lists September 17 in New Zealand; confirm the converted release time in your calendar. RBNZ GDP release schedule.

Our interpretation is that stronger-than-expected growth could reduce expectations for policy easing and support NZD. A weaker result could increase pressure, particularly if the dollar remains firm.

Read the quarterly result alongside revisions and the composition of growth. A favourable headline does not necessarily indicate broad strength across the economy.

USD/CAD forecast: Canadian CPI and the oil-price response

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2. Canada’s August CPI release is scheduled for September 14. Bank of Canada decision, Statistics Canada CPI schedule.

Our scenario analysis focuses on whether Canadian inflation changes the expected rate path relative to the Fed.

A firmer Canadian inflation surprise that raises domestic rate expectations could support CAD and pressure USD/CAD. A softer reading accompanied by stronger US expectations would favour the opposite direction.

Oil is an additional input, but its relationship with CAD is not mechanical. Distinguish an oil rally associated with stronger demand from one driven by a supply disruption that also damages broader risk sentiment.

USD/CHF forecast: dollar strength and defensive demand

USD/CHF finished near the upper end of its weekly range. The next test is whether buyers can maintain that strength through the Fed announcement.

Our assessment is that higher US yields could support the pair, while a shift toward defensive franc demand could offset that support. When both USD and CHF attract defensive flows, their relative strength matters.

The next SNB monetary-policy assessment is scheduled for September 24, outside this outlook week. SNB event schedule.

Forex technical outlook: support and resistance references

These approximate zones are derived from the daily highs and lows in the historical sources linked in the price table. They are reference areas for further chart assessment, not independently confirmed support, resistance or entry signals.

USD/JPY’s upper reference uses Thursday and Friday highs; 156.25–156.30 remains the more distant weekly-high area. Other zones round recent weekly extremes, with psychological round numbers included where relevant.

A completed one-hour or four-hour candle beyond a zone, followed by a successful retest, provides different evidence from a temporary wick. If price returns inside the range immediately, treat the breakout as unconfirmed.

Economic calendar: key forex events next week

This is a selected watchlist. All times in this table are UTC.

Canadian timing combines the CPI release date with Statistics Canada’s standard release time. Other schedules: ONS, US Census, BLS, Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

New Zealand GDP is an additional event discussed above. Recheck schedules and local-time conversions before trading.

What traders should watch after the announcements

If the dollar strengthens broadly: compare whether gains extend across several pairs and whether yields support the move. USD/JPY may still behave differently if Japanese policy produces a stronger surprise.

If the dollar weakens: look for sustained recoveries in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, while checking whether their domestic news supports the move.

If reactions remain mixed: focus on the clearest relative-policy story. A quiet weekly close can hide substantial intraday volatility, and a dramatic first candle can reverse during the press conference.

Several positions can also represent the same underlying exposure. Buying EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD together creates multiple forms of short-dollar exposure rather than three independent ideas.

Assess the actual result, revisions, policy guidance and subsequent price structure together. During major releases, spreads and slippage can increase, and stop orders may execute away from their requested level.

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*Educational market commentary, not personalised investment advice or a guaranteed trading signal. Leveraged forex trading involves substantial risk.*