Forex Today: Dollar Holds Firm as AUD Falls After RBA Hike

Market coverage: Forex / Major Currency Pairs Date: September 29, 2026 Research cut-off: 13:15 UTC / 6:45 PM IST

The US dollar remained firm against most major currencies on Tuesday, but the Australian dollar and Japanese yen showed why each pair needs its own analysis. AUD/USD weakened despite an Australian interest-rate increase, while USD/JPY edged lower in the reviewed quotes.

Reuters linked the broader dollar backdrop to elevated oil prices and US bond yields. Today’s Australian policy decision and Canadian growth release add country-specific developments before the next US data arrive.

At the research cut-off, August US JOLTS job openings and September consumer confidence were still scheduled for 7:30 PM IST. Their results are not included in this update.

Major currency pairs: today’s market snapshot

These Investing.com quotes were reviewed during research, not captured simultaneously. Daily changes and ranges follow each provider page’s convention; the figures are indicative snapshots, not executable prices or closing rates.

Sources: Investing.com currency pages.

A falling EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD quote indicates weakness in the first currency against the dollar. For USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, a rising quote indicates dollar strength.

The dollar outlook depends on what changes in expectations

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. That is an established policy decision; the next move remains dependent on subsequent developments.

For forex markets, the useful question is whether new information changes expected US returns relative to returns elsewhere. A strong US number can support the dollar if it increases expectations of restrictive policy. Its impact can be smaller if investors already anticipated that result.

Our assessment is that the upcoming inflation and labour-market releases should be read together. Firm inflation alongside resilient employment would present a different policy picture from rising prices accompanied by a marked slowdown in hiring. Watching the bond-market response can help distinguish an initial headline reaction from a more durable change in expectations.

EUR/USD: a recovery needs to regain the upper session range

EUR/USD was near 1.1344, with 1.1332 the reviewed intraday low. The immediate recovery area is 1.1371–1.1374, combining the provider’s previous close and today’s displayed high. Below the session low, 1.1300 is a psychological reference rather than a verified historical support level.

Eurostat schedules the September euro-area flash inflation estimate for October 2.

For the euro, a persistent underlying inflation surprise could influence ECB expectations, while an energy-led increase could also raise concerns about household spending and business costs.

Our conditional reading: reclaiming the upper range would improve the recovery picture. Continued trading below it, followed by a sustained loss of 1.1332, would leave the pair more exposed to further dollar strength.

GBP/USD: sterling faces revised UK growth data

GBP/USD was trading at 1.3228, close to its observed low of 1.3221. The 1.3257–1.3259 area marks the previous close and intraday high; 1.3200 is the next nearby round-number reference below the range.

The UK’s April–June quarterly national accounts are scheduled for September 30. This is a revised second-quarter GDP release, not a new August monthly growth report.

Revisions and spending details can change the assessment of growth, but their currency impact depends on whether they alter interest-rate expectations.

A recovery above the upper reference area would suggest that Tuesday’s selling pressure is easing. A move below 1.3221 that fails to recover would weaken that interpretation, particularly if other dollar pairs confirm the move.

USD/JPY: yen headlines remain a separate source of volatility

USD/JPY was marginally lower at 157.28, despite dollar gains against several other currencies. Its reviewed range was 156.99–157.72.

On September 28, Reuters reported that Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, urged markets to take Tokyo and Washington’s yen warnings seriously. The report does not establish that a new intervention occurred today.

The distinction matters because warnings can affect positioning before any confirmed action. The round 157.00 area is a market reference, not an official intervention threshold.

Holding above 157.72 would indicate renewed upward pressure within this session’s framework. A sustained move below 156.99 would instead show stronger yen demand. Unexpected official comments could disrupt either path.

AUD/USD: why the Australian dollar fell after a rate hike

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% on September 29. The decision was unanimous. Its statement highlighted elevated inflation and energy-related pressures and retained the option of further increases if needed.

Nevertheless, AUD/USD was lower at 0.6994 in the reviewed snapshot. A rate increase does not automatically strengthen a currency: the result must be assessed against prior expectations, the expected future policy path and developments in the other currency.

Australia’s August CPI release follows on September 30. It can therefore reshape the interpretation of today’s decision quickly.

The immediate references are 0.6978 below and 0.7000 above, with 0.7030 the displayed session high. Regaining 0.7000 would be an initial improvement; sustained trading toward the upper boundary would provide stronger evidence of recovery. Failure to hold the session low would leave the immediate picture weaker.

USD/CAD: flat July GDP is now a released result

Canada’s economy was unchanged in July, according to Statistics Canada figures reported by Reuters today. The advance estimate points to 0.2% growth in August; that figure remains preliminary.

USD/CAD was near 1.4180, with a reviewed range of 1.4170–1.4202.

The data offer a mixed growth picture rather than a simple acceleration story. For the Canadian dollar, domestic activity and relative interest-rate expectations must also be considered alongside energy prices. Higher oil revenue can support an exporting economy, but it does not guarantee currency appreciation when broader dollar demand is strong.

The 1.4200–1.4202 area is the immediate upper checkpoint. A retreat below 1.4170 would suggest that the session’s upward pressure is fading; sustained trading above the upper boundary would indicate the opposite.

USD/CHF: dollar strength is visible despite the franc’s defensive role

USD/CHF rose to 0.8337 in the reviewed quote, within a 0.8315–0.8350 intraday range.

The franc’s defensive reputation does not require it to outperform the dollar in every uncertain environment. Relative yields, funding demand and changes in positioning can affect the pair differently from EUR/USD or USD/JPY.

At these levels, 0.8350 is the upper session reference. A sustained move through it would strengthen the immediate dollar-led interpretation. A return toward 0.8315 would suggest that buying pressure is losing traction.

Neither outcome can be established from one quote alone. Subsequent price action and the response to US releases will provide a more useful test.

NZD/USD: compare the kiwi with Australia carefully

NZD/USD was lower at 0.5646, with 0.5641 and 0.5677 marking the reviewed session extremes. The provider’s previous close, 0.5660, offers an intermediate recovery reference.

Comparing the kiwi with AUD/USD can help separate broad dollar pressure from Australia-specific news. However, the two economies have different policy settings; today’s RBA decision should not be treated as a New Zealand policy announcement.

Holding above 0.5641 and recovering 0.5660 would improve the immediate balance. A sustained move below the low would indicate continued selling pressure. A recovery toward 0.5677 would need follow-through before it could support a broader reversal interpretation.

Forex economic calendar: what comes next

The following releases were still ahead at the research cut-off. Times account for the relevant daylight-saving arrangements.

Schedules were checked against the release publishers.

Euro-area September flash inflation is also scheduled for October 2; its time is not included in this table.

JOLTS and confidence can change the immediate growth narrative. Tomorrow’s Australian CPI and US PCE readings then bring inflation back into focus. ADP measures private employment and should be assessed on its own methodology; it is not the official payroll report. Friday’s employment release adds wages, unemployment and revisions to the picture.

Three scenarios for the next phase

Broader dollar continuation: US data strengthen expectations of restrictive policy and several major pairs confirm the direction. In that case, a sustained move beyond the quoted ranges would carry more weight than a brief spike.

Dollar pullback: Softer US inflation or labour information reduces expected US yields. Recoveries in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the commodity currencies would become more persuasive if they hold after the initial reaction.

Divergence between pairs: Local releases or yen-related headlines dominate individual currencies. AUD/USD could react primarily to Australian CPI while USD/JPY responds to official comments, producing mixed dollar performance.

These are conditional frameworks, not probability estimates or trade recommendations. All levels above are observed intraday references, previous-close markers or explicitly labelled round numbers. They have not been established here as multi-week support or resistance.

Several positions across different major pairs can still represent the same underlying dollar exposure. The number of currency pairs alone does not establish diversification.

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*This article provides market information and education, not personalised investment advice. Prices and conditions can change after the research cut-off.*