Forex Today: Major Pairs Face RBA, Inflation and US Jobs

Market coverage: Forex / Major Currency Pairs Date: September 28, 2026 Research cut-off: 11:15 UTC / 4:45 PM IST

Major currency pairs began the week with the dollar supported by inflation and interest-rate concerns, but performance was uneven. Reuters’ Monday currency report linked dollar resilience to higher oil prices and the unresolved US–Iran standoff.

The quote snapshots reviewed show EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD lower, while GBP/USD was marginally higher and USD/JPY was lower. That distinction matters: a broadly supported dollar does not mean every major pair must move in the same direction.

This week’s schedule brings an Australian rate decision, several inflation releases and the US employment report. Our assessment is that differences between economies and policy expectations will matter alongside the common dollar theme.

Major currency pairs: market snapshot

The following figures are Investing.com page snapshots checked during research. They were not captured simultaneously and should not be treated as executable prices or Monday closing rates.

Daily changes and ranges follow each provider page’s convention.

For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, a falling quote means the first currency is weakening against the dollar. For USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, a rising quote means the dollar is strengthening against the second currency.

The common driver: relative interest-rate expectations

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, stating that inflation remained elevated.

For currencies, what matters is the expected policy path relative to other economies. A strong US inflation number can support the dollar if it increases expected US returns more than returns elsewhere. The same release can have a smaller effect if that outcome was already anticipated.

Higher energy prices add another complication. They can lift inflation while reducing household purchasing power and raising business costs. Central banks may respond differently depending on domestic growth and underlying price pressures.

Consequently, the next set of data needs to be read through both inflation and growth. A headline surprise alone is less informative than the resulting change in rate expectations and the currency market’s ability to sustain its initial move.

EUR/USD: recovery needs progress toward 1.1400

The euro’s immediate reference is the 1.1366 session low, while 1.1390–1.1400 combines the observed upper range with a psychological round number.

Our interpretation is that holding the lower boundary could allow consolidation, but a stronger recovery would require sustained trading above the upper area. A brief spike through it would be weaker evidence than a successful retest.

Euro-area inflation is an additional catalyst. Eurostat schedules September’s flash estimate for October 2. Persistent underlying inflation could affect ECB expectations, while an energy-heavy increase could also intensify concerns about the growth outlook.

The euro’s response will therefore depend on the balance between its own data and the US releases.

GBP/USD: a modest bounce still needs follow-through

Sterling’s small positive daily move distinguishes it from the euro in the reviewed snapshots. The immediate boundaries are 1.3224 below and 1.3274 above, with 1.3300 a psychological reference beyond the upper edge.

The UK quarterly national accounts for April–June are scheduled for September 30. This is a revised quarterly estimate, rather than a new monthly GDP report.

Revisions and the composition of growth can influence the assessment of Britain’s economy, but the release does not guarantee a new trend in sterling.

Holding the lower boundary and building above the intraday high would improve the recovery picture. A return below the session low would weaken the case that the current bounce is gaining traction.

USD/JPY: policy headlines can override the dollar theme

The yen was firmer against the dollar in the reviewed quote, despite the broader backdrop. 156.52 and 157.86 mark the observed session extremes.

Reuters reported that Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, urged markets to heed the message delivered by Tokyo and Washington on the yen, signalling concern about excessive currency weakness.

Such warnings can increase sensitivity to headlines and sudden reversals. A verbal warning, however, does not by itself confirm that official currency purchases have taken place.

For USD/JPY, the upper range remains a test of dollar buying, while a sustained move below the lower boundary would indicate stronger yen demand. A single sharp move should be assessed alongside subsequent price action and official information.

AUD/USD: the RBA decision comes before Australian CPI

AUD/USD was trading close to 0.7000, a psychological reference just below the observed session low. 0.7030 provides the immediate upper-range checkpoint.

The RBA decision is scheduled for September 29, followed by Australia’s August CPI release on September 30.

That order is important. The rate statement will arrive before the next inflation report, allowing the data to reshape expectations soon after the policy announcement.

A more restrictive message than investors anticipated could support the Australian dollar, whereas a cautious message could leave it vulnerable to US-dollar strength. The announcement, statement and subsequent inflation details should be evaluated together; none is an automatic directional signal.

USD/CAD: higher oil does not settle the outcome

USD/CAD was near the top of its reviewed intraday range, with 1.4142–1.4166 the immediate reference band. 1.4200 is a psychological level beyond it.

Higher oil prices can improve the revenue outlook for an energy-exporting economy, but that influence can be offset by broad dollar demand, interest-rate differences or weaker risk appetite.

Canada’s monthly GDP release is listed for September 29 on the economic calendar. Its implications will depend on the growth details and the resulting policy expectations.

Continued trading above the range high would strengthen the immediate dollar-led interpretation. A retreat through the lower boundary would suggest that the latest upward pressure is losing momentum.

USD/CHF: the franc’s defensive role is not a guarantee

USD/CHF was trading near the quote provider’s 52-week high of 0.8318. The reviewed session low was 0.8283.

A currency’s defensive reputation does not require it to strengthen against every counterpart during uncertainty. Relative yields and demand for dollars can still dominate a particular pair.

For this session, sustained acceptance above the upper boundary would matter more than a brief touch. Failure to hold near the high, followed by a return toward the lower range, would point to a less convincing dollar advance.

These are conditional interpretations of the observed range, not a prediction that a breakout must occur.

NZD/USD: watch whether the lower range holds

NZD/USD’s reviewed boundaries were 0.5649 and 0.5674. The pair remained close to the lower part of that range at the quoted snapshot.

A sustained recovery through the upper boundary would be more persuasive than a short-lived bounce. A break below the lower edge without a prompt recovery would leave the immediate picture weaker.

Comparing NZD/USD with AUD/USD can help distinguish broad dollar pressure from developments specific to Australia. The RBA decision could move the Australian dollar independently, so strength in AUD/USD would not automatically confirm a similar outlook for the New Zealand dollar.

Economic calendar: selected events ahead

All events below are scheduled after the research cut-off. Times include the applicable daylight-saving adjustments.

Dates were checked against publisher schedules where available; Forex Factory supplements the Canadian GDP schedule and euro-area release time.

PCE and employment: Read inflation details, wages, unemployment and revisions together. Stronger US data could reinforce dollar support if it raises expected policy restraint; softer readings could ease that pressure.

Country-specific releases: The RBA decision and European data may produce different outcomes across pairs even when the dollar’s overall direction is unchanged.

Scheduled releases are not yet actual results. Calendars can change, and forecasts should not be treated as known outcomes.

How to interpret the next move

A broader dollar advance would be more convincing if several pairs confirm it and US rate expectations move in the same direction. Mixed moves would support a more selective, country-by-country interpretation.

Conversely, a softer US inflation or employment picture could encourage a dollar pullback, but follow-through would still matter. A first reaction that quickly reverses provides less evidence than a move that holds through subsequent trading.

The levels in this article are provisional intraday references and labelled round numbers. They are not established multi-week support zones or guaranteed targets.

Several positions in different major pairs can also express the same underlying dollar view. Counting currency pairs alone does not measure how diversified that exposure is.

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*This article is for market information and education, not personalised investment advice. Quotes and conditions can change after the research cut-off.*